The TRAst construction industry trust rate increased six points between the fourth quarter of 2024 and in the first quarter of 2025 to a rating of 61. This is the highest qualification of the index from the first quarter of 2022. However, three points are reduced compared to the post-election qualification of the last quarter.
The confident index measures the executive feeling about where the current market will be in the next 3-6 months and for a period of 12 to 18 months, at a scale 0-100. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on the responses of the North -American executives of general contractors, subcontractors and design companies of the main Record Lists to the surveys sent between January 13 and February 17.
The confidence in the economy diminished slightly between this quarter and the last, falling two points to a rating of 56. More than two thirds of the polls surveyed are currently seeing a stable economy, but more executives see a decline economy of 3-6 months from now on and 12-18 months from now on, compared to the last quarter.
Subcontractors are still more optimistic than designers or GC/CMS with a trust rating of 66, up to seven points. The confidence of GCS/CMS reached a rating of 61, up to ten points compared to the last quarter. The confidence among the designers, however, dropped six points to a rating of 53, with 27% of designers waiting for a decrease market of 3-6 months and 12-18 months from now on. Equivalent numbers for GCS/CMS are 14% and 5% respectively, while subcontractors reach 11% and 7%.
These results largely correspond to those of the confindex survey of Princeton, an association of financial management of the construction of NJ. Each quarter, CFMA Survey CFOS of general and civil contractors and subcontractors on markets and business conditions. The resulting confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each with a scale of 1 to 200. A qualification of 100 indicates a stable market; Higher ratings indicate market growth.
Most of the Indexes that Confindex slopes dropped slightly between the 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 indices. Indexes confindex, “business conditions” and “financial conditions” meant a rating of 113, 2.6%, 3.4% and 1.7% respectively. The largest decline was in the “current conditions” rate, which fell 5.4%, up to a 105 rating. The “Outlook next year” remained flat, with a positive rating of 122.
“What seems to happen here is that many contractors think that the President is playing at ESCAC 4D,” says Anirban Basu, general director of the SAGE policy group and CFMA advisor. “That all this talk on tariffs is the stance that can lead to a certain turbulence of prices and availability of short-term materials, but from a year on we will have a good construction market, with a strong economy under a pro-gadget president,” he adds.
The economist believes that the generally optimistic global number of CFMA surveys and Enr believes in a deeper uncertainty. “There is evidence that construction activity in certain segments fades,” he says. He states that the proportion of CFMA companies that denounce concerns about the shortage of skills has fallen abruptly, while worries about the benefit margins and the highest prices of materials have increased. The percentage of the survey survey that reported an increase in the price of materials increased to 67% this quarter, from 54% last quarter.
Interest rates have remained high, weighing pro -forms and it is likely that these interest rates will be maintained until 2025, according to BASU. “The Federal Reserve has just said in its minutes of meeting that they are willing to not lower rates until inflation improves. There is no reason to think that inflation will improve in the context of the rates,” says Sage CEO. Basu believes that there is a strong possibility that there are no rates cuts by 2025.
The rates have shown a popular tool for both the previous Trump administration and the Biden administration. Once implemented, it is difficult to take away. “These rates generate income for the federal government. Once you have a source of income, it is very difficult for federal policymakers to take these income handles, especially when you have a national debt of $ 36.5 trillion, “says Basu.
The markets in ascent and fall
The ENR respondents operating in the Far West/Pacific region report the slightest confidence between the ranging regions of the slopes, with a rating of 51: seven points lower than any other region.
BASU Partly credits the end of the Big Tech Building Boom. “Of the 25 largest metropolitan areas in the country, only San Francisco has failed to add the jobs lost earlier in the pandemic,” he says. Basu claims that large Silicon Valley technology companies have largely built their campuses and focus on costs instead of expansion. “To the extent that these companies expand, like Apple, are in places like Austin, Texas. It is not on the west coast. “”
BASE Voice Houston, Texas, on the other hand, as a market due to a boom. “Houston is the energy technological capital of America,” he says, both for fossil fuels and in alternative energy. “With so much attention right now, increasing the production of U.S. oil and continuing to export more natural gas, than Houston Market, with all this engineering talent, is really to achieve an evolution in almost everybody else.”
