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Brief of diving:
- The actions of some independent energy producers fell abruptly on Monday in the middle of a larger sale in AI technology and infrastructure actions. Actions of companies with major nuclear and gas floats in unregulated markets were especially affected, and Vistra Corp fell by more than 28%, Talen Energy more than 21%and constellation energy greater than 21% .
- The route took place days after the IA Chinese startup, Deepseek, launched two IA models with great performance that can cost 45 times less to train than the avant-garde products of American companies like Openai and Anthropic, Technology Investor and Jeffrey Emanuel said in a post on Saturday block. On Monday, Deepseek’s AI wizard had passed Openai’s chat as the Free Apple Download.
- Deepseek’s success “calls into question significant electricity demand projections for the United States [as] AI accounts for 75% of the general forecasts of the US demand until 2030-35 in most projections, “said the investigation team of the Investment Bank Jefferies and Utility Research in a note Monday.
Divide vision:
Monday’s sale was erased the current earnings for Vistra and Talen, but both actions remain more than double faces than this time last year. The constellation has also increased by around 127% year -on -year.
Advanced Nuclear Oklo and Nuscale Technology companies have also obtained impressive gains last year, with Oklo more than doubled IPO May 2024 and Nuscale winning 580% since January 2024. Shares of the two companies dropped more than 20% on Monday.
In December, Oklo announced. 20 years Offer with the Data Center Developer Switch For up to 12 GW of power at an unvived price. Constellation in September Plans announced To reopen the first non -retired unit prematurely at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant at the back of a 20 -year -old Microsoft Power Power Power Agreement that According to them is a significant premium At the exit of the installation of 835-MW.
And at the beginning of last year, Amazon Web Services acquired a campus of up to 960 MW from Talen in the hope that he would buy energy from the participation of 2,228 MW of Talen at the Nuclear Generation Station of Susquehanna. This arrangement has as it is found under intense regulatory scrutiny.
Amazon and Google have been associated with nuclear technology companies privately X-energy and Kairos Power to feed data centers in the early 2030’s. Amazon won 0.3% and Google Parent Alphabet decreased by 4% in Monday negotiation.
These offers were in the midst of projections that constantly increased for the growth of future load. In a couple of reports published last year, the ICF Consulting Services and Technology Services Services provides for the demand for United States electricity an average of 2% per annum Through 2033, while the Power Electric Research Institute said that the data centers share could double up to 9% In 2030.
These estimates may already be out of date, said Himali Parmar, Vice President of Energy Advisory Services, Interconnection and Transmission at ICF.
“Regarding the ICF’s September report, which projected a 9% increase in US electricity demand in 2028, there is a great increase in demand,” said Parmar.
A preliminary load forecast Presented on December 9 By the PJM interconnection, which houses more proportionate capacity in the data center than any other load -balance authority, it showed its maximum summer and winter load for averages of 2% and 3.2% per annum until 2045 , up to 1.6% and 1.8% growth of 2023 foresight.
But the apparent Dramatic Deepseek improvements in efficiency suggest that AI performance gains may require less “calculation” with a lot of energy than those assumed. This threatens “the bullfighting thesis on independent energy producers and the most integrated services [that] It is completely dependent on data centers, “said Jefferies.
Jefferies $ 274 Price Objective for constellation “is pressed 75% of nuclear portfolio production sold to $ 80/MWh and 50% probability,” he said.
In the same way, it was expected that regulated utilities benefit from data centers that promote new generation needs and “a slowdown in data center projections … It would have a negative impact on higher premium utilities than Investors expect to increase the type base, “said Jefferies.
Among the IPPs, Talen is better located in a less demanding scenario because “he has a price in hiring scenarios of the less robust data center than his colleagues … and he has a way to expand his existing relationship with Amazon On the nuclear floor of Susquehanna, “he said.
Other variable income analysts suggested that Deepseek’s advance could promote Ai infrastructure demand by accelerating the adoption and use of consumer and increasing the pace of investment of North -American technology companies.
“Jevons Paradox states that greater efficiency can lead to an increase in consumption of a resource. The lower costs of AI models could lead to faster adoption by corporations and homes, “Team Global Strategy Strategy of JP Morgan Wealth Management said in a note Monday.
On January 22, President Donald Trump said publicly A joint AI company, called Stargate, which could see Openai, Oracle and Softbank invests $ 500 million in US data centers in the coming years. Trump Subsequently suggested Feed new data centers with “clean and clean coal”.
In the midst of these technological and financial crossings, Parlar de l’ICF said it is too early to know if current projections appropriately take into account the model efficiency gains.
)[But] If a little of this increase in demand can be tempered by energetically ENI technology, this could alleviate network load, associated supply needs and impact on customer invoices, “he said Parm.
