The underdevelopment in flood -prone areas and the inadequate mapping of the Federal Emergency Management Agency probably contributed to the tragedy that was deployed in the center of Texas on July 4, when the sudden floods of the Guadalupe River led to a death of 120 from July 14, with many more disappeared, according to sources known with the situation.
Dnan Rajib, an associate professor of engineering at the University of Texas, Arlington, said that while the river region of the State Hill has been flooded seven times over the last 25 years, the model of his team suggests that decades of underdeveloped properties near the river has left floods in floodwater with heavy rainfall events. “If we had left more space for the river, the flood of July 4 would have increased slower and covered a smaller area,” he told Enr.
Camp Mystic, where many children and counselors, including the owner of the camp, dragged themselves into the flooded hallway. Fema added Camp Mystic to his 100 -year -old flood danger maps in 2011, but later eliminated many campsite structures from the maps at the request of camps owners, according to an Associated Press investigation. Inclusion in maps limits future construction and requires higher premiums in flood insurance.
In addition, Texas has been behind some states in the adoption of proactive emergency mitigation plans. This summer, the Texas legislature almost approved a measure that would have installed alert sirens, but eventually rejected it, considering it too expensive to implement. The Texas Tribune reported in June that more than one hundred of the 254 counties of the state do not have an emergency mitigation plan for natural disasters.
Jeremy Porter, responsible for research on climate implications on the first street, which traces the sea level increase among other dangers, and also creates its own maps with data based on floods of 100 and 500 years, added that, while map the likelihood of river floods, does not include rapid precipitation events and smaller waterways that can contribute to the total water water. “If you do not map the small navigable routes, such as coves, tributaries and streams or [rapid precipitation]In fact, you can’t raise the speed accurately in terms of a really intense rain event, “he said.
Fema models, based on historical patterns, are “really good”, said goalkeeper, but they do not “take into account the rainfall or the adjustments we have seen in rainy rates and intensities due to climate change.” Porter needed an act of congress to allow the agency to change the way it combines its flood risk maps.
Implementation of changes
Fema himself has been under a significant scrutiny in Washington, with President Donald Trump who seeks to eliminate him. A FEMA National Board of Review that was established this year to provide recommendations for the future course of the agency held its second meeting on July 9 in Washington, DC “I need to reimaginate this agency,” said U.S. National Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who co-presented the Council with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
The Council also includes 11 other members: a regional director of FEMA, three current or former state rulers, other state and municipal representatives, the President of the Republican National Committee and CEO of the insurer.
Noem said that states should manage their own emergencies, with any successor federal agency in charge of a financial support role, largely only through block subsidies. “Our goal is for the states to manage their emergencies and we are giving them support, and we are there in a time of financial crisis,” he said.
But the union of interested scientists suggested in a statement that the Council could simply be a “farce” created to dismantle further fem, which hinder “the nation’s ability to prepare, respond and recover from the extreme climate and climate disaster”.
Zoe Middleton, associate director of the Group of Just Climate Resilience, said that the recovery of disasters is expensive and, with some exceptions, most states do not have resources to provide long -distance emergency response and recovery.
“We need to ask us what is the financial impact [removing FEMA] Responsibility, but not finance and support states to respond to disaster, “he told Enr.” I am concerned that there is a real risk of favoritism between the states based on their political relationship with the Trump administration. ”
Bipartisan support for reform
Despite concern for the efforts to weaken or eliminate FEMA, the legislators on both sides have called for a significant reform of the agency.
“It costs a large amount of money for disaster recovery efforts to get out of Fema,” said First Street goalkeeper. “The [National Flood Insurance Program] He has not made money truly since its inception in the early 1970’s, “he added.” If you were to be critical of FEMA and the [flood insurance program]It would probably not be so difficult to find inefficiencies in spending, management and relate to only the enormous budget of things like disaster recovery. ”
Porter emphasized the implications of disparate levels of states of states to respond and rebuild. Texas can better manage his own disaster response than North Carolina based simply on the tax base, but both states could request the same amount of federal funding and support, he said.
Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Emergency Management Division, a member of the Council who attended the July 9 meeting, said that his state has invested much in the creation of emergency response and recovery systems, as well as investing in disaster technologies. Florida has adopted one of the strongest construction codes in the country, he said. “We invest in this. We believe in this. We can carry -up and down our beaches, up and down our state where we show houses that are not yet affected [by storms]. “He said that the state also invested millions in AI generative technology to audit records.
The engineer of the University of Texas Rajib points to the integrated flood framework of Texas and the regional flood planning groups that have linked technology companies, data providers and engineering companies with FEMA to modernize flood maps.
But he adds that FEMA needs an update. “For too long, our goal has focused on the map of flood areas based on probability: areas that can flood once in a century. Now we have to turn these abstract maps into clear and specific risk information about the location that people can act,” he said.
Rajib added that “equally important, we must keep track of how the risk of time is growing through the mapping of human approach within floodplains, which occurs in which the risk increased will not only warn residents, but also guide the smartest reconstruction decisions.”
The Fema Review Council plans to publish recommendations for renewing the agency in November.
