With some clarification on fees from legal battles and a sense that prices are softening, the used equipment market is following its usual seasonal trends with no immediate sign of tariff surcharges on new machine prices. But disruption to global oil markets due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could push up diesel prices and make fleet managers feel the pain at the pump in the coming months.
Used equipment prices are on their seasonal increase as new 2026 models enter the market and relatively newer used machines appear. This annual trend is seen in data from industry analyst EquipmentWatch, with a slight increase in used equipment prices, a 0.15% increase in resale. Auction prices can show more variation this time of year due to lower volume, says Brendan Gallagher, sales analyst at EquipmentWatch. “There are fewer data points in the auction; that activity always slows down at this time of year,” he says.
With seasonal prices, expect a spike in the first half of the year and a dip later. “The previous month shows the same trend: in the new year [used equipment] resale prices start to rise and taper off in the middle of the year.”
There was concern last year that ongoing rate pressures could be reflected in higher manufacturer suggested retail prices for 2026 models, but that has yet to materialize, says Gallagher, who notes that this is not the case in industries outside of construction and lifting equipment. “So far, looking at Caterpillar and Deere, we’re seeing 2026 MSRPs going up 1% to 5%,” he says. “But if you look at other industries, like commercial trucks, they’re seeing 9 percent to 12 percent increases in 2026 MSRPs, that’s driven by tariffs.”
For Deere, the first quarter of 2026 boosted construction equipment, with net sales up 34% year-over-year, but profits were less impressive. Josh Beal, director of investor relations at Deere, attributed this to cost pressures and unfavorable global equipment mixes, speaking during Deere’s quarterly earnings call on February 19.
Perhaps most importantly, Deere has been able to mitigate the impact of the tariffs by reducing overhead. “Excluding tariffs, production costs were lower year over year for all business segments in the first quarter,” Beal said. He added that the construction segment remains a “bright spot” for Deere, driven by continued government investment in infrastructure, declining interest rates and increased demand in the rental market.
Deere forecasts a 15% increase in sales of construction equipment for the rest of 2026 globally, with a 5% increase in the US and Canada.
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While the full impact of the war between the US, Israel and Iran is still unclear in the long term, short-term disruptions in oil and gas production have already caused gasoline and diesel prices to rise due to supply problems.
“Oil prices already look high right now,” notes EquipWatch’s Gallagher. While contractors are likely to factor in increased diesel prices when calculating their cost of ownership, Gallagher says they shouldn’t be expected to retrofit with electric-powered or more fuel-efficient machines. “I don’t expect any crazy changes immediately from a peak [in fuel prices]as these costs are included in construction bid estimates, so even though the mix of equipment is mostly the same, the cost could be reflected in project bids.
