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Brief of diving:
- Increased demand for electricity and a slowdown in creating alternative energy generation sources could extend the use of coal worldwide and move 2,100 GW of gas and renewables by 2050, Wood Mackenzie said in a report earlier this month.
- Under a high -demand stage, The generation of coal energy could be reached by 2030, four years later than the analysis of the “base case” of the analysis.
- The economy and politics of coal are stronger in Asia. In the United States, coal is more expensive than gas or site and storage, but the cost of building new gas plants has almost doubled and long -term energy storage technology is Is not yet mature enough The report said that it turns the site and the wind into true “basiloar” resources.
Divide vision:
In Asia, the worries of national security and the economy promote coal for now, Anthony Knutson, a world head of Wood Mackenzie thermal markets, said, although when it comes to leveled costs, hybrid storage and storage are still cheaper than coal or gas.
“Although the long -term trajectory towards the renewables remains intact, the road is showing much more complex than many foreseen as countries in energy security and the concerns of accessibility,” Knutson said in a statement.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that the leveling cost of unrestricted coal power in the Asia and Pacific region will remain below $ 100/MWh in 2030, less than the expected cost of gas power.
According to the report, the coal -fueled power in the United States will cost about $ 230/MWh in the United States and about $ 270 per MWh in Europe. Gas power then will cost about $ 100/MWh in the United States and about $ 150/MWh in Europe, he said.
Solar and hybrid storage will Coal and gas in all three regions, about $ 60/MWh in Asia, $ 70/MWh in Europe and $ 80/MWh in the United States.
Although the economy of gas generation is more favorable to the United States than in Asian and European countries that are based on liquefied natural gas imports, their ability to combine growth forecasts for the AI burden is limited, according to the report. Although long -term energy storage technology has significantly advanced in recent years, it cannot be provided still underground energy, he said.
It is also more expensive to replace the carbon plants aged by gas and renewables, causing a “sticker shock” to the energy producers who seek to change, according to the report. He blamed the rates, the remodeling of production and the delays in infrastructure to increase the cost of the new plot while noticing an almost cost of the costs of the United States for new gas constructions.
Woodmac said that replacement costs and increasing capacity capacity increase the value of existing coal assets. Capacity prices increased almost ten Through parts of the PJM interconnection last year, carrying the network operator to Sets a “collar” capacity price For their two following auctions.
In the “High Demand Card” of the report, the Aliples of Thermal Coal, and then slowly falls by 2050, it is 32% higher on average. The base case sees that the use of thermal coal is used next year and is constantly falling until 2030.
Combined with a corresponding slowdown, in addition to the cleaner energy generation capacity and without “ significant carbon capture and storage capacity ”, carbon emissions of coal with no restrictions could increase 2 billion tonnes, according to the report.
Woodmac said that it could further threaten international efforts to limit warming to 2 ° C or less, which resigned from the North -American climate scientist James Hansen called “Dead” earlier this year. Hansen first warned of the hazards of climate change caused by humans in an audience of the 1988 Congress Environmental credit With the public awareness of the subject.
Analysis is not a forecast, but “a warning of what inaction could entail,” said David Brown, director of Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition from Energy Transition, in a statement.
“Without urgent actions, the world faces an increasing risk of driving to a 3 ° C road,” said Brown. “Our high -demand case of coal is … a memory of what can still be avoided.”
It is unclear how last -term demand for short -term charcoal increases western prices and financial institutions are reluctant to fund new mining projects, said Woodmac. Sovereignist wealth funds and private capital groups should take a step to cover investment deficiency, he added.
And the long -term viability of the global coal fleet is based on the will of the owners of assets to invest in updates of plants that improve the capacities of monitoring of the load and general efficiency; Retrofits that allow co-making with alternative fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia; And Woodmac said and said Woodmac to carbon capture infrastructure.
China has readjusted about 15% of its charcoal fleet to improve loading, but technology is still born elsewhere, according to Woodmac. So does the co-facing, despite the very important interest in South Korea and Japan. Capture carbon, use and storage – which Woodmac calls the “Graal” of the relevance of coal – is also maintained in his childhood. An United States Operational Project to texas and Questions that annoy the future From a much larger proposal to North Dakota after the departure of the main contractor last year.
