Uncertainty has affected the general economy in the first half of 2025, with the activity of the North -American construction industry, slowing down considerably, according to Dodge Construction Network.
“The increase in costs driven by rates will be difficult for consumers and producers to absorb in the midst of an already high inflationary environment, probably weakening demand and exerting low pressure on prices and economic growth,” says Sarah Martin, an associate director of forecasting in Dodge.
“Construction projects have continued to constantly enter the planning queue, but projects are increasingly going through the planning process until 2025.” These issues will not affect each construction market equally, he adds. “The weakest macroeconomic environment will have a varied effect depending on the sector.
The annual non -residential beginnings fell by 10% during the first four months of the year, with the commercial and manufacturing sectors that lead the downward trend.
Vulnerability of the sector seen
“Non -residential beginnings are likely to soften in the midst of the broader economic uncertainty. Retail stores, warehouses, office buildings and hotels are more vulnerable to a decline in consumer spending, more selective loans standards and higher material costs,” says Martin. “Therefore, these sectors face the highest risk in the short term.”
The beginnings of retail fell 5% until April, while the hotel and warehouse sectors dropped by 19% and 9%, respectively. Health care, parking garages and office buildings – perceived data centers – were the only sectors that saw growth until this year, with offices with the largest increase of 19%.
The largest non -residential buildings projects that began in April were the 1 billion $ 1 billion Kaiser Medical Center in Sacramento, California, $ 940 million from Ballen River West Hotel and the Chicago Casino and two buildings for the GM & Samsung SDI Factory Battery Cell Factory in New Carlisle, Ind., Each $ 8 billion.
The residential beginnings decreased by 5% year -on -year until April. The start of single -family junction fell by 6%, while the multifamily parts decreased by 4%. “The accessibility of the house and the lack of supply, especially the houses of entry, are still the main problems that the residential market has,” says Martin.
The largest multi -family developments for breaking the ground in April were a residential development of $ 331 million in Jersey City, NJ, the $ 256 million Viewed Point apartment building in Fairview Life Care Community in Groton, Conne.
Infrastructure begins to climb
According to Dodge data, the construction of non -construction increased by 8% until April. “The beginnings of Nograne will be the least affected [by economic uncertainty]Made for the financing of the Federal Infrastructure Act, “says Martin.
The major projects related to non -construction to start construction in April were the Hudson Tunnel railway project of $ 1.8 billion between New Jersey and New York; The West Alabama road project of $ 775 million in Thomasville, Ala.; and the $ 365 million, 200 MW in Carpenter’s wind park in Carpenter Township, Ind.
“Increased fee costs will be difficult for consumers and producers to absorb in the midst of an already high inflationary environment.”
—Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecast, Dodge Construction Network
The projects they advance could still face the impacts of the prices of the materials. “Timely prices have been reduced from recent highs, but imminent commercial barriers will increase significantly higher prices in the second half of the year,” says Luke Lillehaugen, a senior economist at S & P Global Market Intelligence, who states that policies are currently causing prices to increase.
“First is the antidumping functions of the United States Department of Commerce. These functions have been just under 15%from August 2024, but could increase again this August to at least 20%and could reach up to 34%,” he says. Lillehaugen adds that a section 232 fare probe in progress to all imports of wood, with the results that are expected to take effect in the fourth quarter, could deliver a rate of 10% to 25% above the existing antidumping duties. The magnitude of the prices impact of these barriers is still highly uncertain, says.
The Second Quarter of S&P Global Market Intelligence provides for an increase of 13.9% by 2025, with an increase of 6.7% by 2026. Plywill prices have a more modest increase of 1.5% by 2025 and 3.9% by 2026.
In terms of steel, “ prices will be mostly plans for the rest of 2025. The rates caused excursions to the flat steel and the bar at the beginning of the year, and another dose when it increases from 25% to 50%, but now it has a mostly price, ” says John Anton, S&P Global Market Intelligence Pricing Pricing Pricing Pricing Pricing Pricing and Purchasing Director. “Structurals are so expensive that they are not expected to increase, but the slow series of declusions will stop at least temporarily.” The S&P foresees that the receiving bar prices will fall by 1% by 2025 before raising 1.1% by 2026. The structural sheet is expected to increase by 4.8% this year, with an increase of 0.2% next year.
