The previously reported number of new jobs from March 2023 to March 2024 fell by 0.5%, according to the preliminary baseline announcement of the current employment statistics (CES). , recently published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report reduced the number of jobs by 818,000, or 0.5%, 45,000 of which were in the construction sector. The reduction is based on unemployment insurance tax records filed by the state.
“The most frustrating thing about this revision is that it doesn’t say anything about what’s happened since March. So we don’t know if the numbers from April to July are still accurate,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at The Associated General Contractors of America. “If so, this suggests that construction employment has strengthened in recent months relative to January 2023 to March 2024. But the downward revision could also imply that the recent data has also been overstated construction employment gains.”
Anirban Basu, chief economist at Associated Builders and Contractors, notes that the revision is not a surprise to the Federal Reserve or the markets. “For months, ABC’s economic research team has been pointing to growing economic fragility, and these reviews indicate that US economic strength has been overstated, at least as far as employment is concerned,” says Basu . “That said, this review is retrospective and does not affect the unemployment rate data and will therefore have little impact on policy-making going forward.”
Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Construction Network, shares a similar sentiment, adding that the report “all cements that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next meeting in September. The only question that remains is whether it will be a cut of a quarter or half a point. Construction activity will pick up as lower rates take hold, leading to stronger hiring next year.”
The final report will be issued in February 2025 with the January 2025 Employment Situation news release.
