After years of speculation, China announced last month that it would build what it described as the world’s largest hydroelectric dam in its Tibet region — a $137 billion megaproject nearly three times the size of the Three Gorges Dam that would be located on the Yarlung Zangbo River per year. one of the deepest gorges on earth. But the estimated 60 GW project has raised serious concerns from environmentalists and neighboring countries India and Bangladesh because the dam site is on an earthquake fault zone, experts say.
Just two weeks after China announced the project on December 25, the Tibetan region was hit by a massive 6.8-magnitude earthquake that killed 126 people in the sparsely populated area and left 180 injured. The earthquake on January 8 was followed two days later by a large aftershock of magnitude 5.5. The epicenter is about 1,200 km from the dam site, but environmental advocates cite the risks of building the project in a region that has suffered a series of earthquakes in recent decades.
China has rejected criticism of the risks posed by the project. “Let me reiterate that the decision to build the project was taken after a rigorous scientific assessment and the project will not have a negative impact on the ecological environment, geological conditions and the rights and interests related to water resources of the downstream countries,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. spokesman Guo Jiakun told the media.
According to the government, the dam will be built in the Yarlung Zangpo Grand Canyon, where the river makes a U-turn before entering India. It has a steep descent of nearly 2,000 meters in a stretch of 50 km which creates great hydroelectric potential. The project would include one or more tunnels of 20 kilometers needed to divert the flow of the river.
“The project raises concerns about the risks of flooding and structural collapse, especially in the event of an earthquake. The project is in the vicinity of the world’s deepest gorge, which poses unique geological and engineering challenges,” Neeraj Singh Manhas, special adviser for South Asia at the South Korea-based think tank, told ENR , Parley Policy Initiative.
He said the region is highly seismically active due to the tectonic interaction between the Indian and Eurasian plates in the earth’s crust. “A large-scale hydroelectric project in such an area must deal with the potential for earthquakes, landslides and glacial lake flooding, which can compromise the integrity of the dam,” Manhas said.
The Yarlung Zangbo River flows from China to India and Bangladesh as it merges with other rivers to become the Brahmaputra, which has led the governments of India and Bangladesh to express concern.
“The Chinese side has been urged to ensure that the interests of states downstream of the Brahmaputra are not harmed by activities in the upstream areas. We will continue to monitor and take necessary measures to protect our interests,” said Randhir Jaiswal , spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, in a statement.
After the earthquake, China’s Ministry of Water Resources said it had carried out inspections and found that the event had no impact on any existing dams and reservoirs in the Tibet region, which has 68 structures that take advantage of the hydroelectric potential of high altitude rivers and lakes.
“The riskiest project in the world”
China is interested in the project to replace polluting power from coal, looking at cleaner sources such as hydroelectric power as well as nuclear and solar power, observers say, but they are not sure whether Beijing will be able to sustain investment when faced with an economic slowdown.
“This is possibly the riskiest project in the world and a serious engineering challenge to build and maintain,” Himangshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network of Dams, Rivers and People, a Delhi-based research group, told ENR . “I think the Chinese government would not undertake such a reckless project. If there is a disaster, a part of China would also be affected apart from downstream places in India and Bangladesh.”
The engineers tasked with building the dam would face a major obstacle in the form of a frozen lake called Sedongpu located tens of kilometers upstream of the work. Created by a landslide in 2018, it is like a colossal reservoir hanging over the dam site.
The government has sent several groups of scientists and engineers in recent years to determine how to get rid of the artificial dam. “The situation is very difficult. There is still no immediate solution,” Xing Aiguo, a professor of civil engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University who participated in one of the studies, told a report from Hong Kong. South China Morning Post. The expert teams also reported that the impacts of climate change may lead to similar catastrophes that will lead to the formation of more lakes. “The area is large and there are many glaciers,” he said.
Development of natural resources and energy on the Yarlung Zongpo River “must fully consider” the risks of avalanches and debris flows in the Sedongpu Valley, according to a 2019 report by the Ministry of Natural Resources. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that 25% of the Tibetan Plateau’s glaciers have disappeared since the 1970s, and two-thirds of those remaining will be gone by the end of the century.
China has often been criticized for building 11 dams on the transboundary Mekong River that are believed to have caused severe droughts in neighboring Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. “China has no water treaties with neighbors who share common rivers. He always acts in his own interest without worrying about how his dam projects would affect life in other countries,” Thakkar said.
China’s foreign ministry defended the Yurland Zangbo project, stressing that it “will not adversely affect low-lying sections,” spokesman Mao Ningshe said, adding that the government “will continue to maintain communication with countries.” [there] through existing channels and intensify cooperation in disaster prevention and relief” for the affected people.
