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During the first half of the year, a word continued to appear in headlines surrounding a wide economic and political change: “uncertainty”. The series of the uncertainty of the construction of Dive deepens how this lack of clarity affects contractors and what the future has. Click links to read previous articles on interest rates and rates.
Immigration and customs agents stormed a Alabama elementary school construction site on July 23, reported WKRG5, giving rise to the arrest of 11 people.
It is one of the latest examples of self -ice cracking at jobs that are believed to undertake unauthorized immigrants to work in the United States
During the 2024 presidential campaign, President Donald Trump used a strong anti-immigration rhetoric, but it was difficult to know how much the administration would follow once in control at the White House. This lack of clarity has erased a little, said Anirban Basu, an economist in chief for associated builders and contractors.
“There is a lot of uncertainty, but in relation to the day of the inauguration, we know more than us.” said Basu. “We now know that the Trump administration is very serious about deportations, even among those who have no convictions for crime or crime.”
Prolonged immigration repressions could expand the project deadlines for contractors of all sizes, as well as aggravating the high demand for work, said experts at Construction Dive. However, the privileged of the industry are optimistic that the administration can change course (withdrawing or not deportations or not to industries that are based on foreign work, including agriculture or construction) before the medium -term elections in November 2026.
Initial impact of incursions
Once Trump was elected, America General Contractors of America informed members that it would take about five months to Trump Administration Begins to increase ice raidsBrian Turmail, Vice President of Public Affairs and Labor, said. In fact, this began to endure in May and will probably increase even more now that ICE has received an infusion of funding, said Turmail.
The great bill, signed by the law on July 4, contained what the Gel Director Todd Lyons called “Unprecedented funding” for the agency.
“We are warning our members that they are likely to expect more activities now that they have more funding and have more resources to use,” Turmail told Construction Dive.
Some actions have achieved headlines, such as the Alabama Primary School’s workplace. But there have been other immediate chilling effects.
For example, Turmail said he heard of the biggest calls or the absences of workers, perhaps because of the fear of employees in the directed raids. In addition, contractors have taken to hanging signs that indicate that non -invited guests are welcome to the workplace, or even signs that specifically call Ice must have a mandate to visit.
According to experts, contractors who have compliance with the use of I-9 and E-Verify systems, but even these tactics are not insensitive, according to experts.
“Everyone understands that if you have done E-Verify, you did the I-9, you may still have workers without documentation in your job,” said Turmail. For example, unauthorized workers may use another person’s social security number or use a manufactured identification form.
And this impact begins to be presented to the larger companies, according to George Carrillo, co-founder and CEO of the Hispanic Construction Council, a Washington, based in DC, which seeks to advance political goals for Hispanic construction workers and companies.
“Some of the great general contractors who had no worries before, now have concerns that some of their jobs have been affected,” Carrillo told Construction Dive. “And therefore, I think because, since it begins to affect more people, it begins to change the opinion of the people.”
In addition, Carrillo said he has heard of “collateral damage”, in which unauthorized workers who are not the goal of an ice raid will still be deported when the agency is called. On the other hand, Turmail said the opposite, which is often indicated by ice agents, no more than the alleged criminals who follow. This is only added to the discomfort.
Broader economic impact
Basu said that the total number of unoccupied work openings amounted from 7.2 million to 7.8 million in two months from January to March.
“My very strong sense is that this has a lot to do, not with the economy strengthened, but that entrepreneurs are increasingly seeking workers without documentation for other documented ones,” he said. “Construction is one of the industries that has tended to use a significant fraction of worker’s ability without documentation. This partial solution is now less accessible.”
Fewer workers, or greater competition for a set of limited workers, could lead to deadlines for elongated projects or even cancellations. Even Current NUMBERS OF HEALTHY RETURN Could be an indicator of a negative change.
“I have a strong suspicion that the recent strength and the setback that has emerged among many contractors has a lot to do with the fact that it takes them more to complete the projects,” said Basu.
Turmail said that the worst case would involve a higher number of unauthorized workers without criminal records, “which will probably lead to some construction projects to stop due to lack of workers.”
The path in front of you
Turmail, on the other hand, said that the best case scenario would simply be a prolonged investment in the development of the workforce for various angles. This could include immigration reform.
“Our hope and what we are pressing is that they pivot,” he said, adding that most Capitol Hill legislators recognize the need for construction work. “Like Congress is eager to do something, but he is waiting for the president’s bat of bat.”
Carrillo has also visited DC to launch home members with methodology to turn unauthorized workers into documented citizens and create a better way for citizens for merchants and workers.
On July 15, The act of dignity of 2025A bipartisan immigration bill was introduced to the house. The law would update border security, review the asylum program and make e-verification mandatory for all US businessmen, according to the National Immigration Forum.
Additionally, a program created by Dignity ACT would allow immigrants without documentation to obtain a legal state on the condition that they pass a fund check, pay taxes due and register for health coverage. The bill just introduced, without votes yet.
Experts told Construction Dive that, due to their harmful impact on U.S. labor force, Trump’s anti-immigration policies cannot last, as interested parties continue to pressure to the federal government to stop or change course.
“I think this is exactly what we will see in the barracks in front,” said Basu, which indicates that a prolonged economic impact can be made clear on the data of the medium -term election, which could push a pivot.
But even if politics is softened, damage to an industry with desperate need for workers can already be done.
“With this immigration policy that goes back to immigration, whether undocumented or documented, this suggests that the demographic of our nation is given, that if it were something, the shortage of workers specializing in construction will be worsened in the coming years,” said Basu.
