The United States construction industry is closer to the bottom of its current spending cycle, with a rebound scheduled for 2026, as the non -residential and infrastructure sectors take on leadership, according to a number of new forecasts.
Ducker Carlisle, a Troy -based consulting firm, Mich., In construction markets, prices and advice of M&A for manufacturers, distributors and contractors, published his perspective on the construction industry in the third quarter of 2025 on September 17.
The firm projects total construction in place will increase by 5.3% next year and will expand to an average annual rate of 5.7% until 2029.
Although residential markets are under pressure, the company states that accessibility, the policy of interest in the federal reserve and the backwardness erases the financing bags and facilitate pressure on labor and materials, creating mixed conditions that make up commercial, institutional and infrastructure work.
Ducker estimates that the construction of the data center will exceed $ 50 billion by 2029, driven by hyperscalers who extend cloud storage, streaming and AI workloads. Bank of America’s data show the expense already at an annualized $ 40 million rate in June, up to almost 30% compared to a year earlier.
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Regional Realization
Southern states are expected to capture almost 45% of US construction expenditure by 2029, with a combined activity approaching $ 1 trillion, according to Ducker Carlisle.
South duck projects will make up almost 45% of the expenditure under North -American construction for 2029, about $ 1 trillion in combined value. Growth is concentrated in the regions of the South and South-Central Atlantic, driven by population migration, disaster recovery programs, and expansion in manufacturing and technology. States that include Texas, Georgia, Carolinas, Arizona, Utah and Colorado are key growth markets.
Analysts largely coincide that the South will dominate the growth of the United States in the last half of the decade. FMI MIDYEAR forecast indicated an activity similar to migration to the south and west of the mountain, while McKinsey emphasized the concentration of large -scale manufacturing megaprojects in the same areas.
Cost pressures and productivity changes
Entry costs are high, between 1% and 3% below the highs in mid-2012 and are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. It is expected that the rates and inflation will maintain the pressure on the structural, architectural and designed metal products.
The data from the Census Office show a total construction expense at an annual rate of $ 2.139 in July, 2.8% year -on -year, with non -residential work slightly lower than June, the evidence of the trough before the growth was resumed.
Technological adoption is emerging as critical compensation. Contractors are deploying and automating offers, cited, hiring and prices, with studies that point to significant savings and revenue gains.
The methods of construction out of the site and Panelized continue to expand as companies seek productivity improvements.
The “Future of Industrial” survey of more than 500 executives, launched on September 17, strengthens these issues.
Ninety-three percent of respondents said that the tournament, modular manufacture and energy resilience are essential for U.S. competitiveness by 2030, and almost half expect operations to move to modular or out of place. The survey also highlights the shortage of labor and network resilience as critical restrictions.
McKinsey emphasized the broadest productivity gap in the construction of the United States and the need for modular digitalization and delivery, while PWC findings suggest that industry leaders now see these strategies as essential, non -optional.
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Risks and restrictions
The forecasts agree that non -residential and infrastructure markets will strengthen, but the risks are maintained. The United States Department of Energy and Public Services warn that network restrictions, zoning and environmental rules could curb the growth of the data center despite record investment.
McKinsey slowly highlights permission and license as main barriers, with some projects that take decades to erase non -hiring approvals. Commercial policy Clouds of manufacturing, while PWC adds labor shortages and regulatory friction in modular production projects and energy transition.
Although residential weakness continues to weigh in the market, government forecasts and data suggest specific growth in the sector, regional changes and the adoption of technology will position contractors and expansion providers in the last half of the decade.
