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Project stress rose gradually in October as the construction industry absorbed the impact of the federal government’s first full month of record closingaccording to the latest data from Cincinnati-based ConstructConnect.
The Project stress indexa measure of construction projects that have been delayed or abandoned, rose 1% from September to October after falling throughout the summer. The increase puts the benchmark about 4.9 percent above its 2021 baseline, said Devin Bell, chief economist at ConstructConnect.
“The project stress index increased this month after three consecutive months of declining index,” Bell told Construction Dive. “The increase was largely due to an increase in delays in bid dates, with pending activity largely offsetting its impact.”
Bid date delays rose 8.5% in October, along with a 1.9% increase in overall project abandonment, according to the report. An 8.2% drop in pending projects partially moderated these increases.
The the effects of the shutdown were clearly shown in public construction activity, Bell told Construction Dive. Public project abandonments increased by 45.8% since October 2024, in addition to a 2.6% increase in public projects on pause. Bell said public sector stress intensified in October as agencies froze construction decisions because of the shutdown.
“External economic events have heavily influenced both private and public abandonment activity,” Bell told Construction Dive. “This was seen in October, with increased activity to abandon public projects as the government was shut down for the entire month.”
However, the overall project stress index remains well below the mid-year peak after the rate jump after Liberation Day. This highlights the potential resistance of the construction market economic and political uncertaintyBell said.
In the private sector, dropouts fell modestly in October and have remained largely stable since Liberation Day. Pending private projects fell about 68.9 percent since last October, Bell said.
Overall stress conditions are roughly in line with last year’s level, down just 0.4% compared to October 2024. Still, Bell added cost pressures combined with public funding changes will continue to increase. project feasibility test.
The federal government reopened on Nov. 13, meaning any normalization of public construction activity won’t appear until next month’s report. The new spending bill that allowed the government to reopen provides temporary funding for most agencies through January 2026.
