The TRAst construction industry confidence rate fell 14 points between the first quarter and the first quarter, to a rating of 47. This is the third largest fall in the history of the index, only exceeded by falls in 222020 and in the first quarter 2022.
The confident index measures the executive feeling about where the current market will be from the next three to six months and for a period of 12 to 18 months, on a scale 0-100. A rating above 50 shows a growing market. The measure is based on the responses of the North -American executives of general contractors, subcontractors and design companies of the main Records lists to the surveys sent between May 13 and June 9.
In their comments, companies report that the uncertainty of the cost -related cost as the main engine of the trusted fall. The summary of a company is typical of the comment: “Everyone seems to be expected and see the impacts of fares, but we already see several projects that experience increases in deliveries and ask for quick shipping reviews to combat prices.”
The confidence in the economy as a whole fell 10 points, up to a rating of 46. In the last quarter, 16.9% of companies saw an economy today. This number has almost doubled, up to 33.3% this quarter.
Proposed separately, the confidence of the market between the design companies is very low, with a rating of 35. It is a fall of 18 points compared to last quarter. Almost half of the design companies still see a decline market at 3-6 months from now on and 37% see a continuous decrease until 2026. GCS/CMS reached a 47 rating, with subcontractors at 54.
These results correspond to those of the Princeton confindex survey, NJ construction financial management association (CFMA). Each quarter, CFMA Survey CFOS of general and civil contractors and subcontractors on markets and business conditions. The resulting confindex is based on four separate financial and market components, each with a scale of 1 to 200. A qualification of 100 indicates a stable market; Higher ratings indicate market growth.
The Global confindex fell by 10.6% between Q1 and Q2, up to a rating of 101. The strongest decrease was in the “business conditions” index, which fell 15% to 96. The “current conditions” index fell below 100, below 9.5% to 95. The “financial conditions” and the indices of “ year ahead ” fell 7.9% ” 11.5% respectively.
The rates are also a main concern for its members, says Neil Shah, President and CEO of CFMA. “As inflation and interest rates were collected in ’22 and ’23, you began to see more pessimism in our Survey of Feelings. The last two quarters look like the form of this period right now.”
Outside of the rates, the macroeconomic delay of highest interest rates by reducing the demand for design work is also a factor, says Anirban Basu, director general of SAGE policy and CFMA advisor. “The reading of the architectural billing index has been below the threshold of 50 in 20 of the last 21 months. The architects told us almost two years ago about what the contractors would feel now,” he says. The ABI reading of April 2025 arrived at 43.2. “A really bad reading,” he adds.
Market challenges
“The only non -residential construction segment I am working right now is data centers. It’s everything,” says Basu.
“The segments that have promoted construction work, such as manufacturing, have softened,” he says. BASU indicates that the Institute for the Management of Supplies Management, which measures the manufacturing activity, has been below the reference reading of 50 of 29 of the last 31 months. “You have a lot of capacity that has recently been online, but you do not have a robust manufacturing growth. Absent federal subsidies, you will start seeing a new investment in this capacity,” says Basu.
The SAGE CEO lists the single -family home as another segment of trouble. Mortgage rates are a huge factor in the slowdown of the sector, as well as the Trump administration immigration policy. The report from the Office of Labor Statistics showed that the residential sector reduced 7,500 jobs, but BASU believes that the loss of work is more aggressive than the one reflected in the data. “I think there was really much more job creation when returning to housing construction, because a fair number of these hires were probably migrants without documentation and were not shown in the responses of anyone’s survey,” he says.
In a recent presentation, juxtaposed housing units based on construction versus the occupation of the contractor. “What I showed was that the occupation of the contractor had hardly been reduced, even when housing units under construction had decreased abruptly,” he says. The workers were first dropped without documentation, but now documented workers are starting to get out of books.
Trust fell into most markets that follow. The hotel/hospitality market saw the largest fall, falling 18 points to a rating of 37. The transport market fell 12 points with a rating of 59. The last time the confidence in this market was less than 60 was in the fourth quarter of 2021: the final reading of the investment and the final pre-infrastructure jobs. Companies trust the electricity market, which was a qualification of 79 this quarter, slightly low from the 82 quarters.
