The Bureau of Labor Statistics cut the previously reported number of new jobs by 0.5% from March 2023 to March 2024, according to a recently released update.
The revision, in the agency’s preliminary benchmark announcement of current employment statistics, reduced the number of jobs by 818,000, 45,000 of which were in the construction sector. The reduction is based on unemployment insurance tax records submitted by states.
“The most frustrating thing about this review is that it doesn’t say anything about what’s happened since March, so we don’t know if the numbers from April to July are still accurate,” said Ken Simonson, chief economist at the Associated General Contractors of America. “If so, this suggests that construction employment has strengthened in recent months relative to [the periods from] From January 2023 to March 2024. But the downward revision could also imply that recent data has also overstated construction job gains.”
Anirban Basu, chief economist at Associated Builders and Contractors, says the revision is not a surprise to the Federal Reserve or the markets. “For months, ABC’s economic research team has been pointing to growing economic fragility, and these reviews indicate that America’s economic strength has been overstated, at least as far as employment is concerned.” he says “That said, this review is retrospective and does not affect the unemployment rate data and will therefore have little impact on policy-making going forward.”
Richard Branch, chief economist at Dodge Construction Network, shares a similar sentiment, adding that the report “all cements that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its next meeting in September. The only question that remains is whether it will be a cut of a quarter or half a point. Construction activity will pick up as lower rates take hold, leading to stronger hiring next year.”
The final report will be issued in February 2025 together with the January 2025 employment announcement.
