Construction groups see little immediate effect from President Donald Trump’s latest move to review the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), saying the biggest risk is that prolonged uncertainty could affect future investment in manufacturing and supply chain planning.
Speaking to reporters at the White House on June 30, Trump said he was “not looking to renew” the trade deal.
“Today’s announcement likely won’t change much in the immediate term, as the USMCA remains in effect while the review continues,” Macrina Wilkins, director of market information for the Associated General Contractors of America, told ENR. “The biggest issue for contractors is the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations rather than any immediate policy change.”
Under the pact’s review provisions, that decision begins annual reviews that could ultimately allow it to expire in 2036 if the US, Canada and Mexico fail to reach an agreement. The treaty remains in effect while the process continues.
Marcos Carias, US economist at trade credit insurer Coface, said negotiations appear to be lagging behind due to significant differences over issues such as automotive rules of origin and domestic content requirements. He believes companies are taking a “wait and see” approach to investment decisions.
“Look at the numbers of foreign investment coming into Mexico,” he said. “They have been stopped since it became a plausible prospect that the president would win the 2024 election.”
Carias said AI-driven data center development should remain relatively isolated because many critical inputs already receive tariff exemptions and the administration has generally sought to support investment in AI.
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“In short, I think the good news is that whatever happens with USMCA or otherwise, this particular side of the economy will remain relatively protected from the trade war,” he said when discussing AI data centers and energy projects.
Carias suggested that contractors should continue to monitor supply chain tensions affecting transformers, electrical equipment and HVAC assemblies made in Mexico. Auto manufacturing remains the most exposed sector if negotiations end up producing stricter regional content requirements.
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Associated builders and contractors came to a similar conclusion.
“This won’t have too many near-term implications for construction,” ABC Chief Economist Zack Fritz said in an email. “It’s possible that some very large, long-term projects will collapse due to uncertainty, but 10 years is a long time, especially with a new presidential administration just a few years away.”
AGC’s Wilkins said contractors, like all companies, benefit from a predictable trade policy because manufacturing, automotive, infrastructure and data center projects rely on integrated American supply chains.
“Long-term construction projects rely on stable material costs and reliable supply chains to tender for work and make investment decisions with confidence,” he said.
